What the Luis Arraez trade says about the Marlins future

Surrey batters turn the screw after Dan Worrall six-for floors Worcestershire

The signal from Miami Marlins leadership about the decision to part ways with Luis Arraez is clear: Trading the batting champion was an acknowledgement of the team's dismal start to the 2024 season.

Peter Bendix, in his first year as head of baseball operations for Miami, said as much to reporters following Arraez's trade to the San Diego Padres, adding "We are unlikely to make the playoffs this year."

The Marlins are 9-26 and already 14½ games out of first place in the National League East. Their placement feels particularly bitter after making the playoffs last fall for the first time in a full season since 2003. Though they have not yet told other teams that they are officially open for business, the assumption in other front offices is that Miami will soon be ready to talk about more trades.

But here's the catch: Some rival executives mulling over the Marlins' roster don't see significant value available and believe that Miami will have difficulty drawing attractive offers for other members of the team.

Here are some of the pieces that make up Miami's roster -- and thoughts on the players who might be candidates to move.

Closer Tanner Scott could be of interest to other organizations, coming off a strong 2023 season, but the concern with Scott has always been his command; so far this year, he has issued 14 walks in 13⅓ innings. If another club believes it can get him back to where he was last season, when he posted a 2.31 ERA in 74 appearances with improved control, then it could take a chance on him. Even then, though, the investment would be short term -- Scott will be a free agent in the fall. "He's the guy on their roster you'd look at," one evaluator told ESPN on Sunday. Josh Bell, the Marlins' 31-year-old first baseman, is in his last year of a two-year, $33 million contract. Following an offseason in which accomplished corner infielders/designated hitters, such as Justin Turner, were drawing offers of $12 to $13 million, a player of Bell's profile and salary won't necessarily be attractive to teams, even under the best of circumstances. And at the moment, he's hitting .197 with a .604 OPS. Tim Anderson signed a one-year contract for $1 million late in the winter, and a player with his track record and extremely low salary might normally draw interest. But he's off to a horrific start, with three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 111 plate appearances and a .504 OPS. Jake Burger, 28, hit 34 homers between the Chicago White Sox and Marlins last season, and any team acquiring him would have four more seasons of control after this year. But he is currently on the injured list, and after a slow start at third base (.228/.281/.421), some clubs view him as a future first baseman with a less than ideal on-base percentage history. "He'll hit you some home runs, but unless the OBP changes, that kind of player isn't going to get you much [in a trade]," another evaluator said. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 26 years old with three-plus years of service time and some past moments of dynamism -- though he hasn't lived up to the hype that surrounded him as an up-and-coming prospect. Now that he's going through his arbitration years, teams are looking at the potential value they'll get for their money -- and they have some concerns. "He's a .300 OBP guy and he's already gone through position changes," one official said. "You'd have to really believe there's more than what he's shown so far." Sandy Alcantara won the Cy Young Award in 2022 but is out for this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Avisail Garcia is making $12 million this year after missing most of last season and is already on the IL because of a hamstring problem. Over the winter, left-hander Jesus Luzardo was a player who generated a ton of discussion within other front offices as they identified starting pitchers for potential trades. Luzardo was coming off a season in which he posted a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts and had three-plus years of service time remaining. Some evaluators looked at him as someone who could be in the conversation with Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease -- both of whom were traded -- as the most attractive commodity on the market. "What you were looking at was the years of control a team would've had left," an official said. The window for optimal return might now be closed unless Luzardo bounces back from an early-season elbow injury, for which he is currently on the IL. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, the best time to trade him might have been this past offseason.

On top of all of those dismal developments, there is also this: Manager Skip Schumaker, who generated a lot of respect within the industry as he won NL Manager of the Year in his rookie year at the helm of the Marlins, is in a lame-duck situation. He was hired following the 2022 season by then-general manager Kim Ng, but Ng is no longer with the organization -- she left after last season when she was offered what was effectively a demotion. In the aftermath of that decision, Schumaker asked the Marlins to eliminate the 2025 option year on his contract. That means he will be a free agent in the fall, as well, with many in the industry anticipating that he'll walk away.

What does all this mean? The road back to the relevancy Miami enjoyed just six months ago appears it will be long and painful.